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The Great Migration of Supply Chain in the Era of China US Trade War 2.0
The reconstruction of Sino US trade under the 54% tariff iron curtain (core policy) On the early morning of April 3rd Beijing time, the Trump administration officially launched the heavy hammer of "equivalent tariffs" and imposed a 34% cumulative tariff on Chinese goods. This is the second upgrade after the 20% tariff imposed in January, causing the total tariff rate on China by the United States to soar to 54%. The White House statement shows that the policy will officially take effect on April 9th Eastern Time, covering more than 3800 tax items such as steel, photovoltaic modules, and consumer electronics.
What is even more lethal is the simultaneous introduction of the T86 tax exemption policy repeal order. Starting from May 2nd, Chinese goods worth less than $800 will no longer enjoy tax-free treatment, and the mainstream direct mail mode of cross-border e-commerce faces a "double pricing" of 30% tariff or $25 per item. This means that the tariff cost alone for a $10 T-shirt sent from China to the United States will suddenly increase to $3
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02
Industry earthquake under double impact (direct impact)
The traditional manufacturing industry's "lifeline" has been lost - the head of a car parts company in Ningbo revealed to reporters that its American customers have clearly refused to bear the additional costs: "The 54% tax rate directly swallowed up our 17% gross profit margin, and now we must either close the factory or transfer the production line." According to statistics from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, there has been a 30% -40% wave of cancellations for white goods and mechanical equipment orders to the United States.
The end of the "golden age" of cross-border e-commerce - platforms such as Temu and Shein, which rely on small exemption policies, are the first to bear the brunt. Mr. Zhang, a seller of 3C products in Shenzhen, calculated that "the Bluetooth earphones, which originally had a profit margin of 15%, now have a tariff cost of 12%, and we may have to give up the US market." The industry predicts that the proportion of direct mail mode will plummet from the current 68% to below 20%.
The transfer of industries in Southeast Asia has hit a reef - companies that had previously laid out in Vietnam and Thailand have suffered unexpected setbacks. The Vietnamese branch of a furniture factory in Dongguan, which invested 20 million US dollars last year, has come to a standstill due to local tariffs ranging from 32% to 46%. According to data from the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, 41% of investments in Southeast Asian manufacturing in 2024 are facing capacity reset.
03、Economic shock: Global markets experience severe volatility Economic shock: Global markets experience severe volatility as Trump's new policies trigger panic in global capital markets. After the announcement, US stock futures, Japanese stocks, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks all experienced significant declines. US agricultural product prices continue to be under pressure due to China's countermeasures, with Chicago soybean futures falling to a two month low and cotton prices hitting a new low since 2020. 04、Butterfly Effect More than 20 countries including the European Union and India have launched countermeasures against the restructuring of the global trading system (international impact), and the WTO has warned that global trade may shrink by 2.3%. However, local retailers in the United States are also in trouble. Wal Mart, Best Buy and other giants announced plans to raise prices in the second quarter, and the consumer price index is expected to rise 5.8%.
