Core data adjustment

According to data from third-party monitoring agency EchoTik, TikTok Shop's weekly GMV in the United States dropped to $197 million in mid April, a 32% decrease from its peak of $291 million in March. This phenomenon is directly related to the termination of the tariff exemption policy for packages below $800 by the United States on May 2nd, which resulted in a 60% increase in logistics costs for small and medium-sized sellers (15 yuan/kg → 24 yuan/kg), forcing some merchants to exit the market.

Policy Impact Analysis

The White House's recent imposition of a 245% tariff on Chinese imports is essentially a retaliatory escalation of countermeasures against China. Previously, the closure of the "small tax exemption" channel relied on by platforms such as Temu and Shein directly impacted the "low price fast sales" business model. A beauty seller revealed that their profit margin on beauty orders has fallen below 5%, forcing them to switch to the European and Southeast Asian markets.

Industry resilience observation

DHgate's counter trend growth confirms the potential of the US market: the platform showcases "light luxury flat replacement" products directly supplied by contract factories through TikTok short videos, increasing daily conversion rates by 27%. Consumer reviews show that 67% of users continue to repurchase due to 'cost-effectiveness surpassing local brands'

It is worth noting that some sellers are breaking through the situation through "supply chain localization". A 3C merchant in Guangzhou transported semi-finished products to a bonded warehouse in Mexico for assembly, successfully avoiding the restrictions of Article 301 and shortening the logistics time to 5 days. At the same time, TikTok Shop has launched a "tariff calculator" function, which displays the price including tax in real time to avoid consumer checkout loss. Industry analysts point out that China's cross-border e-commerce has shifted from "low price dumping" to "precise demand matching". Through big data analysis of the North American segmented market, for example, the "Han Element Sports Shoes" launched for Generation Z sold over 10000 pairs per month, confirming the feasibility of differentiated competition paths.