In May 2025, the United States officially implemented the cancellation of the small parcel tariff exemption policy (T86), and the Trump administration imposed tariffs of up to 245% on Chinese goods. This long brewing trade storm has caused a collective shock between cross-border e-commerce platforms and sellers. On one hand, platforms such as Temu and Shein, which rely on China's supply chain, are urgently turning to "local fulfillment", while on the other hand, sellers in the Amazon ecosystem are crazily raising prices and clearing inventory in parallel, exacerbating consumer behavior differentiation... This butterfly effect triggered by tariffs is reshaping the global e-commerce landscape.   

###1. Temu's "survival without arms": China's direct mail suspended, betting on localization in the United States**

As the "king of low prices" in China's cross-border e-commerce, Temu is the first to bear the brunt. After the policy came into effect, its official website and app completely removed Chinese direct mail products and instead labeled them as "locally shipped", and announced that sales in the US market would be taken over by local sellers.   

-* * Strategic adjustment * *: Temu has shifted the fulfillment process to the United States by recruiting local sellers and establishing overseas warehouses to avoid tariff costs. At present, local products in the United States on the platform have been marked as "no import fees", but most of them are still supplied by Chinese companies.   

-* * Short term pain * *: The suspension of direct mail has led to a shortage of inventory for some products, a reduction in platform advertising, and a potential impact on revenue. But Temu emphasized "not raising prices" and attempted to maintain low price attractiveness through a localized model.   

-* * Long term challenge * *: After turning to local performance, Temu needs to face the competition from Amazon and Wal Mart, and its supply chain efficiency and cost control ability will face greater challenges.   

###Secondly, the Amazon ecosystem is experiencing a "dual cycle of ice and fire": sellers crazily raising prices vs. clearing inventory at a loss**

Under the surge in tariff costs, the Amazon seller community is showing extreme differentiation:

-Top player 'Price Increase Poly': Some high profit products have increased their prices by 30% -50%, digesting costs through brand premium and overseas warehouse layout. A seller bluntly stated, 'The impact of tariffs is not on profits, but on the overall consumer sentiment in the market.'.   

-Small and medium-sized sellers' survival by cutting off their arms': Sellers who rely on low-priced distribution are forced to clear their inventory and even exit the US market. According to data from the Shenzhen Cross border Association, over 30% of small and medium-sized sellers plan to switch to Europe and Southeast Asia.   

-Platform policy wavers: Amazon once planned to launch a "tariff reminder" function, but it was quickly halted due to seller protests. At the same time, the platform is cracking down on new accounts, and the large-scale scanning wave has affected inactive accounts, further exacerbating uncertainty.   

###3. Consumer behavior differentiation: online "lightning protection" of Chinese products, offline "reverse purchasing"**

The transmission of tariffs to terminal prices presents contradictory characteristics in the behavior of American consumers:

-Online cautious consumption: The average price of Chinese products such as clothing and footwear on Amazon has increased by 29%, with some categories seeing an increase of over 65%. Low income groups are turning to second-hand platforms or offline channels.   

-* * The rise of offline "reverse purchasing" * *: American consumers flooded into China to purchase. In April, the consumption of Alipay's overseas users increased 1.5 times year-on-year. The upgrading of China's manufacturing industry and the optimization of departure tax rebate policies have given rise to a trend of "empty container to China" purchasing on behalf of customers.   

###4. Game between Platform and Seller: Multi platform Layout as Survival Rule**

To cope with tariff risks, sellers are no longer betting on a single platform:

-Logistics strategy upgrade: Overseas warehouses have changed from "optional" to "essential", and some sellers have adopted the "FBA+FBM" combination. High turnover goods are stored on Amazon, while long tail goods are taxed through transit warehouses in Mexico and Canada.   

-Globalization of Supply Chain: Companies such as Zhumi Technology will transfer their production capacity to Mexico and use the USMCA agreement to reduce tariffs; Temu and Shein are promoting the "semi custodial+overseas warehouse" model, stocking up goods in advance to US warehouses.   

-* * Multi platform diversion * *: Wal Mart lowered the entry threshold to attract Chinese sellers, eBay grew against the trend with second-hand goods, and TikTok diverted independent stations into a new trend.   

###5. Future outlook: In the era of differentiation, who will survive? **  

Trump has recently released signals of "or lowering tariffs", but it is difficult to see a turning point in the short-term game between China and the United States. Industry reshuffle is inevitable:

-Compliance and Branding: Sellers who rely on low-priced dumping will be cleared, and top enterprises with overseas warehouses and brand premium capabilities are expected to consolidate their advantages.   

-Technology driven efficiency: AI product selection, dynamic pricing algorithms, and intelligent logistics systems will become the key to cost control.   

-Normalization of Policy Risks: Cross border sellers need to establish flexible supply chains, pay attention to regional trade rules such as RCEP and the USMCA, and diversify market risks.   

**Conclusion**

The tariff storm not only opens up the cost ledger, but also marks the beginning of the restructuring of the global trade chain. Temu's "localization experiment", Amazon sellers' "survival game", and consumers' "purchasing frenzy" together outline a new picture of the game between Chinese manufacturing and globalization. As industry insiders have said, "This is not the worst era, but an era of division - some people leave in despair, while others see the stars and the sea

(The data and case studies presented in this article are self published and represent the author's views only, and do not constitute investment advice.)