In 2025, a "tsunami" triggered by the imposition of tariffs by the United States will sweep across the global cross-border e-commerce market. Platforms such as Temu and Shein, which rely on the Chinese supply chain, are the first to suffer, with a sharp drop in traffic and a halving of sales, while local giants such as Amazon are "sitting firmly on the fishing platform". Behind this tariff storm is a life and death test of business models, and a signal of global supply chain restructuring.   

1、 Shocking data: The 'cliff like' decline of low-priced platforms

Traffic plummets by 55%: Temu's darkest moment

-According to Similarweb statistics, the number of visits to Temu's US website in April plummeted from 390 million in March to 173 million, a drop of up to 55%; Shein's visit volume decreased by 23% to 55 million during the same period.   

-Core reason: American consumers hoarded goods in advance in March to cope with the expected price increase after the tariff policy came into effect in April. After the policy was implemented, the price advantage of low-priced goods was broken down, and demand rapidly declined.   

2. Double digit decline in sales: price increases are difficult to reverse the decline

-From April 25th to May 1st, Temu and Shein's sales decreased by 17% and 23% respectively. Taking a $10 product as an example, the tariff cost skyrocketed from zero to $12 (120% of the value), forcing the selling price to double and consumers to turn to the second-hand market or local low-priced channels.   

3. The advantage of local platforms in resisting pressure is highlighted

-Amazon's traffic in April only dropped by 4%. Retailers such as Wal Mart and Target transferred cost pressure through supply chain bargaining power, and even asked Chinese suppliers to cut prices by 10% to maintain the low price strategy.

2、 The double-edged sword of tariff policy: the triple strangulation of cost, mode, and compliance

1. Policy core: End of tax-free dividends, grey customs clearance exit

-The United States has cancelled the tax-free policy for packages under $800 (with T86 code invalid), and imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, with some categories even having a comprehensive tax rate of up to 145%. The cost of shipping full containers by sea has increased by $1000 per container, while the cost of customs duties for direct mail parcels has surged by 30%.   

-Chain reaction: Small and medium-sized sellers relying on "fragmented supply chain+tax-free direct mail" have zero profits, and over 1 billion small packages are facing delays in customs clearance and soaring costs.   

2. Mode disruption: transition from "small package direct mail" to "overseas warehouse"

-Temu semi custodial model: Pre storing high-value goods in US warehouses, increasing the value of the goods to over $800 to apply the original tax exemption rules, but increasing storage costs.   

-Shein Localization Layout: Setting up distribution centers in the United States to shorten logistics links, but facing the challenge of balancing efficiency and cost in final delivery.   

3. Compliance Risk Upgrade: Data Transparency and Inspection Pressure

-The new regulations require the platform to provide full chain data to customs, and Temu has invested hundreds of millions of yuan to upgrade its IT system to cope with tax inspections, even replacing packaging to reduce inspection risks.   

3、 The Road to Breakthrough: Localization, Intelligence, and Supply Chain Restructuring

1. Deep cultivation of supply chain localization

-Case: Yongqiang Group established a factory in Southeast Asia, reducing tariff costs by 30% and shortening delivery time to 15 days; A company in Dongguan achieved a 72 hour delivery time and a 200% increase in inventory turnover rate through a US pre warehouse.   

-Strategy: Layout the nearshore supply chains in Mexico, Vietnam, and other regions, and utilize the zero tariff policy in the RCEP region to reduce risks.   

2. Technological empowerment: AI restructuring the entire operational chain

-Marketing Revolution: AIGC automatically generates 3D scene images and multilingual copy, increasing click through rates by 37%.   

-Intelligent decision-making in the supply chain: Tencent Cloud system analyzes global data in real-time, predicts demand fluctuations, and avoids inventory backlog.   

3. Compliance and differentiation competition

-Brand premium: Brands such as Nike absorb costs by raising prices by 3% -5%, while white label products need to raise prices by 15% to break even.   

-Policy dividend: China's new policy of "tax refund upon departure" supports overseas warehouses, allowing sellers to receive tax refunds in advance and alleviate financial pressure.   

4、 Future outlook: Restructuring of the global e-commerce value chain

1. Short term pain: Temu and Shein need to maintain low prices through subsidies (burning up to $15 million per day), but rely on supply chain resilience breakthroughs in the long term.   

2. Balancing localization and globalization: Amazon accelerates the global testing of the Haul platform (UK, Saudi Arabia), and TikTok Shop shifts to the Mexican market (sales surged 695% month on month in April).   

3. Industry reshuffle: Distribution sellers without core advantages are accelerating their exit, and compliant and branded enterprises will dominate the market.   

Conclusion:

The tariff storm is both a crisis and an opportunity for transformation. From "Made in China" to "Global Intelligent Manufacturing", from price wars to value wars, the next stop of cross-border e-commerce belongs to those brave enough to reconstruct the supply chain, embrace technological revolution, and deeply cultivate localization.